Grain markets closed mixed today in a choppy trading session ahead of the USDA report that is out on Friday.
When everything was said and done we had corn up 2, KC wheat up 1, MPLS wheat down 1, CBOT wheat down 3, old crop soybeans up 23, and new crop beans up 7.
A couple things I see in the market place; first off it feels like the funds still want to own grains; next is we have a lot of fear in the market place due to weather and crop size, and lastly we have the market awaiting the report that is out on Friday.
As for the report here are the estimates;
This comes from the Van Trump Report
US 2013/14 Ending Stocks
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses | USDA 2013 |
| Corn | ??? | 1.331 | 1.314 | 1.231 - 1.435 | 0.821 |
| Soybeans | ??? | 0.135 | 0.134 | 0.125 - 0.17 5 | 0.141 |
| Wheat | ??? | 0.583 | 0.5 90 | 0.570 - 0.63 0 | 0.718 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Feb | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | 2.1 | 1.672 | 1.295 - 2. 3 54 |
| Soybeans | ??? | .285 | 0.307 | 0.200 - 0.464 |
| Wheat | ??? | .587 | 0.553 | 0.425 - 0.652 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA June | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses | USDA 2013 |
| All Winter | ??? | 1.509 | 1.468 | 1.312 - 1.591 | 1.534 |
| Hard Red Winter | ??? | 0.781 | 0.782 | 0.610 - 0.870 | 0.744 |
| Soft Red Winter | ??? | 0.509 | 0.467 | 0. 409 - 0. 570 | 0. 56 5 |
| White Winter | ??? | 0.219 | 0.2 20 | 0.188 - 0.268 | 0.225 |
| All Wheat | ??? | 2.080 | 2.0 50 | 1.891 - 2.182 | 2.130 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | 158.00 | 157.31 | 149.45 - 161.20 |
| Soybeans | ??? | 69.42 | 69.77 | 67.30 - 73.00 |
| Wheat | ??? | 186.68 | 185.95 | 181.91 - 189.00 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | NA | 159.41 | 149.90 - 175.00 |
| Soybeans | ??? | NA | 80.34 | 67.00 - 95.00 |
| Wheat | ??? | NA | 184.53 | 178.00 - 200.00 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA April | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Argentina Corn | ??? | 24.00 | 23.86 | 22.30 - 23.86 |
| Argentina Soybeans | ??? | 54.00 | 54.40 | 53.50- 57.00 |
| Brazil Corn | ??? | 72.00 | 72.10 | 70.50 - 74.00 |
| Brazil Soybeans | ??? | 87.50 | 87.23 | 86.50 - 87.50 |
I don’t think anyone is really smart enough to outguess the USDA; many can have good theories and explanations as to what could and maybe should happen; but I have always found that you simply can’t outguess the USDA and there logic. You can be right some of the time; maybe even most of the time; but not all of the time. So what I look for into a USDA report is what are the possible risks and rewards. Is the market leaning too far bearish or bullish. What is the market expecting? What has the price done leading up to the USDA report?
The thing that sticks out to me as a possible risk on this report has to be the world wheat carryout numbers and wheat production. Mainly because of the rally we have had; I think a big 2014/15 world wheat number towards the top end of the guess could lead to a massive sell off. In regards to wheat production it has seemed to me that many times the USDA has always been slow at lowering production numbers.
Here is link to Tregg Cronin’s Morning Comments for Halo Commodities………at the bottom he shares some good thoughts for the USDA report that is out on Friday. http://halocommodities.com/582014-morning-comments/
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