Grain Markets are called mixed this morning as they await for the USDA report that will be out at 11; when the overnight session ended we had corn off 1 ½ cents, KC wheat down 7, MPLS wheat down 6, CBOT wheat down 7, old crop beans down 2, and new crop beans up 2. Outsides at 8:10 have the US Dollar stronger up nearly 400 ticks at 79.80 on the June US Dollar Futures, crude is up 60 cents a barrel, gold is up 2 bucks an ounce, and the DOW Mini Futures are pointing towards a lower start of about 12 points on the DOW.
Today is all about the USDA report; at least until it happens. Depending what the report says it will tell us things like how important weather should be; maybe if the market needs to add more unknown fear premium or take it away.
I don’t know what the report will say; but I would recommend knowing the possibilities and being comfortable for those unknown possibilities. For some that might mean having some sales done or protection on ahead of the report; for those it might mean doing nothing. Every marketing plan is different; so the only recommendation can be find a way to be comfortable.
Here are the estimates for the report; this comes from the Van Trump Report.
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses | USDA 2013 |
| Corn | ??? | 1.331 | 1.314 | 1.231 - 1.435 | 0.821 |
| Soybeans | ??? | 0.135 | 0.134 | 0.125 - 0.17 5 | 0.141 |
| Wheat | ??? | 0.583 | 0.5 90 | 0.570 - 0.63 0 | 0.718 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Feb | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | 2.1 | 1.672 | 1.295 - 2. 3 54 |
| Soybeans | ??? | .285 | 0.307 | 0.200 - 0.464 |
| Wheat | ??? | .587 | 0.553 | 0.425 - 0.652 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA June | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses | USDA 2013 |
| All Winter | ??? | 1.509 | 1.468 | 1.312 - 1.591 | 1.534 |
| Hard Red Winter | ??? | 0.781 | 0.782 | 0.610 - 0.870 | 0.744 |
| Soft Red Winter | ??? | 0.509 | 0.467 | 0. 409 - 0. 570 | 0. 56 5 |
| White Winter | ??? | 0.219 | 0.2 20 | 0.188 - 0.268 | 0.225 |
| All Wheat | ??? | 2.080 | 2.0 50 | 1.891 - 2.182 | 2.130 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | 158.00 | 157.31 | 149.45 - 161.20 |
| Soybeans | ??? | 69.42 | 69.77 | 67.30 - 73.00 |
| Wheat | ??? | 186.68 | 185.95 | 181.91 - 189.00 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA Apr. | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Corn | ??? | NA | 159.41 | 149.90 - 175.00 |
| Soybeans | ??? | NA | 80.34 | 67.00 - 95.00 |
| Wheat | ??? | NA | 184.53 | 178.00 - 200.00 |
| | USDA 5/9 | USDA April | Avg. Guess | Range of Guesses |
| Argentina Corn | ??? | 24.00 | 23.86 | 22.30 - 23.86 |
| Argentina Soybeans | ??? | 54.00 | 54.40 | 53.50- 57.00 |
| Brazil Corn | ??? | 72.00 | 72.10 | 70.50 - 74.00 |
| Brazil Soybeans | ??? | 87.50 | 87.23 | 86.50 - 87.50 |
As mentioned the market will trade the USDA report for a little bit but then it should go back to trying to define production. It is really early to define row crop production and really probably to early to know for sure what HRW production will be; but once the market can define production it can then determine if it needs to move higher to curb demand or lower to increase demand. In the meantime as it determines crop sizes it should add a little fear premium or weather premium; that’s is part of the reason corn has had a strong seasonal tendency to get weaker after the fourth of July.
Basis continues to be weaker locally; part of that is due to the unknowns of the takeover regarding this rail line. Also the rail roads in general have made good progress; now many elevators are having low inventory and not looking to load trains out. Freight costs have went down for spot; but new crop freight is still very high. Look for basis to be very choppy and continue to be highly impacted by what the railroad does or doesn’t do. Overall it feels like our area has more supply then demand; and most of our local ethanol plants seem to be covered until August; some later.
Below is more market info
This is from Tregg Cronin with Halo Commodities……… good read.
The below is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights
Morning Highlights
By Richard Plackemeier
Highlights
- USDA May S&D report out today at 11:00 a.m. CST. This report should include the first 2014/15 crop production estimates from USDA.
- Rains moving across the Mississippi River valley this morning.Wet conditions for Minnesota and the Dakotas are generating some concern that planting of wheat and corn will be delayed.
- US dollar index is up .214 points this morning to 79.656.June Crude oil is up +.37 to $100.63.Dow Jones equity futures are down -21.00 early on.
Corn
- Average market estimate for May report 2013/14 corn carryout 1.314 bil bu Carryout for 2014/15 estimated 1.672 bil bu.Range from 1.295-2.354 bil bu.
- USDA outlook forum in February used 14/15 corn yield of 163.5 bpa in initial forecasts.
- Many market watchers expect Monday’s crop progress planting estimate to come in 50% to 60% complete.
- Ukraine corn planting is estimated to be 76% complete.
Outlook: the US currently has 44.17 mil tons of corn exports now on the books, versus USDA’s last projection of 44.45 mil tons. So the balance scales are about even. A few corn cancellations showing up this week, along with questions from the pork feeding sector may be the key to watch for any major old crop adjustments in US corn carryout. The market will quickly shift focus to new crop yield potential once this crop is in the ground.
Oilseeds
- China intends to offer up to 300k tons of beans out of state reserves next week. The government has said up to 3.0 mil tons in total may be offered over the next several months.
- Average market estimate for May report 2013/14 bean carryout 134 mil bu.Carryout for 2014/15 estimated 307 mil bu. Range from 200-464 mil bu.
- USDA outlook forum in February used 14/15 bean yield of 45.2 bpa.
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting Argentine bean production at 55.5 mil tons, versus previous estimate of 54.5 mil.
Outlook: with US bean stocks poised to show another tight number, the market will try to balance coming imports from Brazil and a potential building world supply for 2014/15.
Wheat
- Jordan is tendering for up to 100k tons of optional origin milling wheat.
- Trade expectations for May wheat production forecast: all wheat2.046 bil bu., HRW 782 mil, SRW 467 mil, SWW 219 mil, all winter wheat 1.468 bil bu.
- This week’s rain event was mainly less than needed, as rains were limited to mostly northern HRW areas and parts of southern/central Oklahoma. The driest areas again missed any significant moisture.
Outlook: KC wheat futures have rallied significantly this week on production concerns. HRW spreads to SRW and HRS have increased markedly, and continue to keep users and buyers looking for alternatives.
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)
This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.
No comments:
Post a Comment