Markets closed mixed in a choppy somewhat volatile session as we continue to trade weather.
July corn closed down a dime a bushel, new crop December corn was off 3 cents, KC wheat was up 14, MPLS wheat was up 3, CBOT wheat was up 14-15, July soybeans were off a dime, November soybeans were down 6 cents, the US dollar is under pressure off about 400 points with the cash index at 81.73, crude is off about a buck and a half, and gold was up about 9 bucks an ounce.
Very choppy day; at one time in the night session corn was up about a dime and with old crop closing off a dime we had a good twenty cent range. New crop had about a 15 cent trading range for corn. The wheat market had even more volatility; at one time early in the session KC wheat was off about a dime as the early reports from the crop tour where decent. Then around 9:30-10:00 we had got to about break even and within another hour or so we were up about 20 cents giving us a 33 cent trading range from 8:30 to noon.
Part of the wheat strength might have came from more wheat tour results and even some of the information coming out of our area. That being the prospects for wheat look very bad; lots of insurance agents out and indicating that early next week some stuff will be adjusted to 0-5 bushels. But I think the bigger story was one of the updated forecast models showing for some more freeze weather later this week. A cold snap that could go all the way down south into parts of Texas. I think that is really what got our market excited.
In the last 5-10 mins wheat did have about a 10 cent or so trading range so the volatility seemed to last the whole session. With the crop tour still going on for the next few days look for that volatility to stay. But one thing that we and the market seem to be keep in mind is the fact that we don’t have a great way to really evaluate the wheat given how early some of it is. One of the tweets on twitter today indicated that only about 1-2% of the wheat was heading out on this tour; versus 70 % or so last year and about 20% normally. So how good of a job will this tour do? Will it be measuring potential? Overstate it? Understate it? Or will it really come down to what happens with mother nature in the next few days/weeks ahead? Obviously a frost later this week could really smoke the wheat crop hard and that won’t be accounted for in this crop tour.
Overall the reports have been decent to good in the tour; but I don’t know that they are any better than expectations for those areas either. The next few days should see more of the poor wheat getting looked at and those reports are likely to be more friendly. But once again the weather forecasts will probably trump this news. A freeze right now could mean huge damage; it might make more of our wheat non-milling plus who know how much quantity could be shaved off this already hurt crop?
Tomorrow we will have ethanol info out; market is looking for continued improved production because of the improved margins.
The other thing in weather is the system that is suppose to hit much of the corn belt in the next couple of days. Sounds like 1-5 inches of moisture for many parts of Iowa. One report I heard was of a foot of snow potentially in Iowa later this week. I did see some of the 6-10 day and later forecasts show some improvement and that might have helped ease the corn rally that we had going last night and earlier in the session. Bottom line is these forecasts will continue to change a couple times a day; how important they will be should depend on how much moisture the eastern corn belt gets hit with later this week. If the event is a bust while then some of the deferred forecasts won’t be quiet as important; while if it is as wet or wetter then forecasted the other deferred forecasts will become more important.
I did see on twitter today a few different pictures of some field work happening in parts of Iowa; NE, ND, SD; so some progress is happening. But it seems like overall the progress is maybe happening in the outlying states; not all of the I states where our crop is really determined.
Here are some more tweets with info and various links for the wheat crop tour. These are using hash tag #wheattour13 and @hedgeit
Field 15. South of Atwood, KS. Visual 18. Calculated 23. pic.twitter.com/X2SRhwjlR9
CHS Hedging Inc.@hedgeitField 14. Rawlins county. pic.twitter.com/ULEqjJp1dr
Correction to field 14. Calculated yield 24 not 17.
Field 14. Rawlins county, KS. Visual yield estimate 24. Calculated 17. Dry area. pic.twitter.com/X93gHOA353
Field 11. A few miles West of phillipsburg. 30 days from heading. Visual 38. pic.twitter.com/giOexMUxNE
Field 12. West of Norton, KS. Yield 48-46. Rain will make it or break it. Wheat on corn. pic.twitter.com/BD4WjqwDNx
Field 13. Decatur county, KS. Calculated yield 38. Visual yield 42. Plants 6-8" tall. Had a faint hay smell from freeze damage.
Field 10. Phillipsburg, KS. Freeze damage to tillers. Looks dry. Moisture about 2" down; not sure how much. Yield 38. pic.twitter.com/AMllO5RP4e
Field 9. By Athol, KS. Yield between 48-52. Freeze damage evident. Ten inch rows. 45 heads per foot. pic.twitter.com/Za1aLE9I5h
Field 8. By Lebanon, KS. Visual yield 42. Calculated yield 51. About 25 days until it heads out. pic.twitter.com/935TXyJhCw
Field 7. A few miles outside of Mankato, KS. Estimating 48 bu yield. Wheat on wheat. pic.twitter.com/9yp7udsaqi
Field 6. Border of Republic and Jewell counties off hwy 36. Wheat after beans. 47 bu. pic.twitter.com/UQVtBByHAM
Field 5. KSU Research Plot, Belleville, KS. More freeze damage but still cosmetic. No disease so far. 74 bu est. pic.twitter.com/1m8eyPQ3pr
Field 3. Cloud county, KS. Along hwy 24. Wheat on wheat. Seeing some freeze damage. This field worse than first two. pic.twitter.com/Z4hXMpLm5s
Field 4. South of Concordia, KS. Getting drier. Est. 51 bu. pic.twitter.com/0vZOQ8JI3g
CHS Hedging Financial Markets & Reports http://createsend.com/t/r-C1DFB24BE08D25322540EF23F30FEDED …
Field 2. West of Clay Center, KS. 7.5 inch rows. Visually 54 bu yield. 64 heads per foot. pic.twitter.com/m8eQZjoWQP
Field 1. Approx 5 miles west of Riley, KS. Will head out about May15-20. Should make 60bu pretty easily. pic.twitter.com/QQ7TVAOo1G
Nebraska Wheat@NebraskaWheat42m
#wheattour13 Conclusion: #Yields will take a hit and moisture is badly needed. #pleaserain
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat52m
West of Cope, CO, 26.5 bu/acre estimate. #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc53m
Side by side fields near Zurich, late planting, wanting to grow, but needs help, 25 & 23 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/1EeqM971lO
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat54m
Wrong pic of Cope irrigated - here is the 53.8 field. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20CAf
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat55m
Wheat Yields Forecast at 45 Bushels in 12 Kansas Fields http://bloom.bg/ZjB300 via @BloombergNews #wheattour13
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat55m
12 mile so. of Cope, CO, on CRP, 15.3 bu/acre estimate http://ow.ly/i/20CwW #wheattour13
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat57m
1 mile south of Cope, CO, irrigated, est. 53.8 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20CsN
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 With rain,, this field near Oberlin has 21 bpa potential. Super dry soils. Bright side: 0 freeze damage! pic.twitter.com/b3EOk2Wpah
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Nebraska Wheat@NebraskaWheat1h
Finished scouting fields in KS & NE. Seeing spotty stands, freeze damage, and later than normal development. #wheattour13
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
@mattleising Perhaps next year you could join #WheatTour13
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Matt Leising@mattleising1h
I'm strangely hooked on these wheat tour pics, very cool, and calming RT @CMEGroup Field in Sheridan #WheatTour13 http://stks.co/bSGm
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John Everitt@wildjohn19631h
#wheattour13 Saying the wheat crop will make if it rains Is like saying the Jets would have won the Super Bowl if they had Kept Tim Tebow
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 Just east of Nicodemus. Soil is very dry. Freeze damage to wheat; 33 bu/acre yield estimate. pic.twitter.com/2DQxFbXBY4
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
Field in Sheridan County using average 15.9 bpa, using lower standard deviation 13.1 $ZW_F #WheatTour13 http://stks.co/bSGm
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 In a wheat field Near Salina, a #photobomb with Tim Unruh of the @salinajournal pic.twitter.com/BAldRGnsoG
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 North of Norton, there is no soil moisture to speak of. With rain, this crop will make 31 bu/acre. pic.twitter.com/xtRxEATosS
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Hays Daily News@NorthWestKansas1h
MT @KansasWheat: #wheattour13 Near Stockton, 46.7 bu/acre, if it gets rain. freeze/ice damage, 16" soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/p52YjTBt68
Followed by ADM CropRiskServices and 1 other
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
The 56th Annual Hard Winter Wheat Tour coordinated by the Wheat Quality Council opened April 29 http://stks.co/cSI6 $ZW_F #wheattour13
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 Near Stockton, 46.7 bu/acre, if this crop gets rain. freeze/ice damage to leaves. 16" of soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/oN7tKyv8mg
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc1h
Nursery plots at KSU experiment station in Hays were planted late, so look great, 53 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/1b2xIgomQ4
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN2h
This Decatur Co. field est yield 21.5 bpa. I say, only if it rains and keeps raining. Poorest field yet #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/4xB0O5XzlA
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc2h
Poor, short, weedy, dry stand near Liebanthal, 19 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/VNf3XaU1ZU
Retweeted by Mary Kennedy
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN2h
Our first field in Norton Co. looked like it had just emerged. Est. Yield of 29.9 bpa, but it really needs a drink. #wheattour13
Retweeted by Edouard Tallent and 1 other
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John Everitt@wildjohn19632h
#wheattour13 is it cold enough on KS for you boys to still be drinking schnapps being a late spring n'all
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc2h
Important to keep in mind that tweets are estimates from individual fields along one route on this tour, avgs will come tonight #wheattour13
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Farm Futures@FarmFutures2h
#wheat prices up ZWK3 721.75 +12; ZWN3 731 +14.5; KEK3 798 +17.25; KEN3 789.5 +13.75 #farm #markets #wheattour13 #agchat
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup2h
Dry in Rooks Cty. Estimated 47.5 bpa, but seems high http://stks.co/gTX8 #WheatTour13 $ZW_F
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc3h
Dry, dry field north of Hoisington, very very little subsoil moisture, 28 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/ZyZpoYmfvG
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Russell French@frenchrw3h
@jerodmcdaniel I think #wheattour13 should be done on Harleys. Would be more fun
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup3h
Fields in Russell and Osbourne Counties dry. Spotty, short, late planted avg. at 33.8 bpa #WheatTour13 $ZW_F
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN3h
Definitely dry in Phillips County. Formula pegs yield at 44.2 bpa but that's definitely a stretch without rain. #wheattour13
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Arlan Suderman@ArlanFF1013h
RT @KatieMDTN: Just sampled two side by side fields. The thicker, earlier planted had an est. 59 bpa yield, other 30 bpa. #wheattour13
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Tom Polansek@tpolansek4h
Wheat futures jump 3 pct on damage concerns as Kansas crop tour begins http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/30/markets-grains-idUSL3N0DH1TX20130430 … #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc4h
Cracks in the field near Hoisington, how deep will they be in Colby? #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/99hTXCx1m0
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc4h
Baby E is sad, but @ldreiling says to cheer up, with rain this wheat could make 43 bpa #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/lmuiPYyGEy
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat4h
#wheattour13 - Phillips Co. wheat needs a rain badly. 40 bu/acre today, but no soil moisture. freeze damage on leaves pic.twitter.com/HiPBFdCz1y
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat4h
3 miles w of Cope, Colo, 26.5 bu/acre yield. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20uXg
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Beeson Inc@Beesoninc4h
Cloud/Mitchell high 50s BPA. Limited freeze damage. Expecting conditions to dry out as we head west. #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/r1cdZyzsYq
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat4h
RT @peteloewen: Newsflash* #Wheattour13 expected to last til next Thurs as participants spend more time tweeting than checking fields.
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup5h
Here's a closer view from Ottawa County. Average 45.2 bpa #WheatTour13 http://ow.ly/i/20uae
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
I love how everyone knows the #wheattour13 numbers are overstated due to growth stage, yet it like let's just run with it anyway...
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
5 mi east Anton Colo 21.1 bu/acre estimate yield #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20u47
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Everyone on the #wheattour13 should download @mikemcclureband on iTunes, great music!
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup5h
HEre we are in Ottawa County on Highway 18 and 106 intersection. Average 45.2 bpa #WheatTour13 http://ow.ly/i/20tYL
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
7 miles w of Anton, est yield 39.0 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20tW3
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat5h
#Wheattour13: Smith Co., at KAWG dir. Theron Haresnape's farm. Dry soils, 52 bu/acre potential, plntd in failed corn. pic.twitter.com/qtqOZyR9xv
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Really going to need to do a tick check later -- y drivers found at least 4 crawling on him so far. Yikes! #wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Just sampled two side by side fields. The thicker, earlier planted had an est. 59 bpa yield, other 30 bpa. #wheattour13
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Mike ODea@WheatTraderFCSt5h
@jerodmcdaniel old times crop was judged by the ability to see or not see beer cans thrown in field #scientific #wheattour13
Retweeted by Jerod McDaniel
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Wheat in Oklahoma Panhandle going to get 5th hard freeze of 26 in two days... Wheat might make 1bpa with a drink... #wheattour13
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
If I ran a tour group it would go something like this...
Wheat's dead. Where is the bar, every little Kansas town has a bar?
#wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc5h
Wheat trying to recover near Frederick, but stems are cracking, 38 bpa with a drink #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/7wn1Cx6Or6
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Follow me for all the #wheattour13 updates!
Not really, I just wanted to throw that out there.
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Aurelien Perier@AurelGrains5h
all right, #liffe close tomorrow so see you Thursday with much informations about #wheattour13 !! #farm
Followed by Paul Toseland and 7 others
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Kyle Abbott@KyleTAbbott5h
Freeze hurt. Need rain! RT @KatieMDTN: Near Smith Center got our lowest est. of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10" rows. #wheattour13
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Hays Daily News@NorthWestKansas5h
RT @KatieMDTN: Near Smith Center got our lowest estimate of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10 inch rows. #wheattour13
Followed by ADM CropRiskServices and 1 other
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy5h
@danmaltby1 I wouldn't bet on it. I know the CSU #wheatbreeding program won't be done by end of July. We are very late in CO. #wheattour13
In reply to dan maltby
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Near Smith Center got our lowest estimate of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10 inch rows. #wheattour13
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
#wheattour13 20 miles west of Last Chance CO, 28.8 bu/acre estimate. @CSUwheatguy http://ow.ly/i/20srg
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dan maltby@danmaltby15h
@CSUwheatguy hah; trick #wheattour13 question; answer is NONE.
nice try. ALL of that #wheat will be harvested in July...
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
Last chance photo #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20sar
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
3 miles east of Last Chance, est 30.3 bu/acre #Wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN7h
All the fields today are WAY behind in development, but our yields are solid, 61.8 bpa in Washington Co and 49.5 in Republic CO #wheattour13
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts7h
Reply to @KatieMDTN given the lateness, what's the level of confidence in the tour estimates compared to say a 'normal' year ?
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN6h
@morrisonmkts I'd say the formula we use will overestimate yields this year. More tillers out there than normal bc of how late it is.
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@KatieMDTN it might be useful to compare the 2007 KS Tour estimate to final yields
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
@morrisonmkts good idea. In 2007 tour estimate was 392 mb with a 41 bpa avg yield. USDA final was 283 mb. #wheattour13
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9:10 AM - 30 Apr 13 · Details
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@KatieMDTN without looking,I'd bet that was the biggest % miss ever for the KS Tour... keep in mind % headed in 2007 was 7% vs. 1% now
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Brock Associates@TheBrockReport5h
@KatieMDTN @morrisonmkts Wow--that's a big gap!
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc5h
@KatieMDTN @morrisonmkts 2007 had significantly more subsoil moisture for the crop to draw from. @ldreiling
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Greg Akagi@GregAkagi5h
@morrisonmkts @KatieMDTN I was on 97 tour w/est. in the low 200 million's. May had cooler temps and rains and #KS had 506 million bu crop.
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@GregAkagi @KatieMDTN Interesting but both the '07 and '97 variances reinforce my view to take this year's Tour ests w/ a grain of salt
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat5h
#wheattour13 - Near Salina at Justin Knopf's farm, 65 bu/acre. Freeze damage hard to est. 36" of soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/ih3XkNawuP
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy5h
@danmaltby1 Yup. Or in other words, how many of the tillers we're counting will have grain in them at harvest in September? #wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Field in Jewell Co. will be toast if it gets hot and dry. Itty bitty wheat w/o a flag leaf yet. Est yield at 43.8 bpa #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc6h
Head from field near Marquette, short on moisture but could make it, 42 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/z2hapLgG5h
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy6h
I'm hoping my genomics based yield predictions are more robust than these estimates. #wheattour13 #wheatbreeding @danmaltby1
Followed by Clif Mendel and 14 others
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN6h
The stand in that last field was thick! Got an 81 bpa estimate is Republic Co. Probably high, but the best field we've seen yet #wheattour13
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Jeremey Frost @FrostJeremey6h
@coloradowheat is that better or worse then expecations for that area? #wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN29 Apr
Getting ready to kick off #wheattour13! Here's a map of the routes we'll be driving in Kansas the next few days http://tinyurl.com/cz6xg7k
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat6h
#wheattour13 - near Chapman, a wheat stand thick enough to hold up a hat! pic.twitter.com/Qvi1TlXhnw
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat6h
1 mile NE of Byers Co est yield 43.7 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20pEp
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc6h
#wheattour13 mixed opinions on field near Lindsborg with @ldreiling , settled on 42 bpa but a good drink would help #wheattour13
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Kansas Dept of Ag@KansasDeptofAg7h
How has the cold spring impacted the #Kansas wheat crop? Follow the #wheattour13 with @uswheatassoc @KansasWheat @KatieMDTN
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
@razrbx @ldreiling heads are green and looking ok, but some are in rough shape #wheattour13
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup7h
Follow #wheattour13 and tweet your questions @kansaswheat @uswheatassoc @KatieMDTN for their live commentary this week $ZW_F
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup7h
Here's a map of the 2013 Kansas Wheat Tour #wheattour13 (HT @KatieMDTN) http://ow.ly/kzgwj
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
Thick wheat bouncing back from some early freeze damage, 77 bpa but likely not good quality #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/UAxYv5YhXQ
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat7h
#wheattour13...12 miles west of Washington, 52 bu/acre, 26-inch moisture profile. No-till system. pic.twitter.com/adn5vb4NXG
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
Near Solomon, mushy heads illustrating more freeze damage, lucky to make 34 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/LlNQtYxchk
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Bryce Anderson@BAndersonDTN7h
Where wx's been best. RT @KansasWheat 1st rpt #wheattour13-Leonardville Hwy 24, 48 bu/A, 30" soil moisture, no freeze pic.twitter.com/GkCjIMDavS
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
@ldreiling and Julia east of Navarre seeing freeze damage with roughening of stems, 37 bpa may be high #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/1m0nLkTt5x
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN8h
@IntFarmNet we just started scouting this morning. Follow #wheattour13 for all the tweets!
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc8h
@ldreiling says this field has been loved near Woodbine, 44 bpa estimated #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/YiwOWpmw43
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc8h
Really pretty wheat in NE Morris county, 41 bpa #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/vk9x8GTD8J
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat8h
1st report from #wheattour13 - near Leonardville on Hwy 24, 48 bu/acre, 30 inches of soil moisture, no freeze dmg. pic.twitter.com/zZGyu9ZvMM
Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
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