Morning Market Thoughts 3-6-2013

Markets are a little weaker this a.m.

As of 9:10 corn is off 7 cents, KC wheat is off 8 cents, MPLS wheat is off 7 cents, and CBOT wheat is off 9 cents.  Wheat is flirting with the lows from earlier this week as well as last week’s lows; if those level’s don’t hold we will be making more new 9 month lows.  Outside markets have a strong US dollar, equities continue their strength with the DOW up over 14,300 up 45 points at new all time highs once again, crude is down about 60 cents and gold is up slightly.

Many offices in Washington DC are closed today due to a snowstorm.  This might delay the release of some of the energy data including ethanol numbers that would normally be out shortly this a.m.  Maybe it will help out some birdseed demand?  But that remains to be seen.

Wheat is leading the way down today as moisture is called for in most of the HRW growing areas this weekend and into early next week.

Also giving wheat a little pressure is the India government who is suppose to decide on Thursday if they are going to allow an additional export of 5 MMT tons of wheat via private companies.

Ukraine also approved additional wheat exports, someplace between 300k approved and 500k expected.

It sounds like S Korea bought 69k tones of S. American corn.  Not that the US expects to be getting much export business as we really don’t have the corn to sell; but still it is a headline and not a positive one; at least not positive to the funds.

USDA report is out on Friday.  The below is a run down from the Van Trump report as to estimates.

US Inventory 2013
	Todays #	Previous USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	0.632	0.643	0.560 - 0.909
Soybeans	???	0.125	0.120	0.110 - 0.130
Wheat	???	0.691	0.704	0.647 - 0.754
Crop Reserve Estimates 2012/13
	Todays #	Previous USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	118.04	117.46	115.50 - 120.0
Soybeans	???	59.46	59.31	59.31
Wheat	???	176.73	176.53	176.53
South American Production Numbers
	Todays #	Previous USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Brazil Corn	???	72.5	72.2	68.0 - 73.5
Argentine Corn	???	27.0	25.7	24.0 - 27.0
Brazil Soy	???	83.5	83.2	81.0 - 84.0
Argentine Soy	???	53.0	51.2	48.5 - 53.0

I have seen some signs that basis feels a little softer with an increased movement noticed.  Gulf corn basis is said to be down a penny or two and many of our local ethanol plants seem to have very good nearby coverage.  The only way most of them will buy anything for March or April is if they can find someone that already owes them corn to push that delivery back to later.  Bottom line is nearby coverage is rather good; the real need is later slots.

Besides the USDA report on Friday; CONAB will have some estimates out for South America production tomorrow.

One good thing that we have seen for wheat demand as of late is a lot of wheat moving into feed ration’s in the south.  I also seen a rumor of one ethanol plant starting to buy some SRW wheat.

Don’t forget about our harvest for hunger food drive program.  Please give us a call if you want to help us raise some meals.  Don’t forget that CHS is matching.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks