How do I hedge my 2012 corn crop and come out with the best return?

How do I hedge my 2012 corn crop and come out with the best return?

Below is a look at a few charts that tell us how history says one is suppose to hedge the big bull markets; as always it doesn't mean it will be the same this time around.

The heart of the question is if a producer has a good idea and portion of his costs of raising his 2012 corn crop how does he go about marketing it.  Forget the method for starters; let's go right to the heart of the matter; where does one place his hedges.  Should he really sell 2012 at a discount to 2011 if the reason he is selling is he thinks prices will go down?  Probably not because softer prices usually go along with more supply thus creating a carry in the market or at least taking away part of the inverse that is presently out there.

Where would the old school say to hedge it at; on this I know I have learned via being a grain merchandiser one is simply suppose to place hedges where they belong or you might get burned and if you get burned too many times you will be sleeping on the street.

So there you have it; old school versus the bear market theory; bear market theory says place your hedges in the Dec 2011 crop while the old school says that might work most of the time but the one time it doesn't work.  OUCH!

Personal opinon is that ECON 101 will rule out thus causing increased supply with decreased demand therby creating a bear market sometime in the next 5-6 months therefor I place the hedges in the Dec 11 all day long until I see that we are going to have much supply come Oct-Nov.  My thinking that is we always see some sort of harvest pressure; I have never went a year not seeing grain piled some place or another during the winter and I don't think this will be any different.

Here are some charts that might help you make your decision.

Oh by the way if in 2008 you would have placed your 2009 sales in Dec 08 futures you could have hit over 8.60 a bushel for corn; while the high of that Dec 2009 contract was 7.00 ish.

Opening Grain Market Comments 5-15-12

Markets are called better behind a better overnight session; while outside markets are mixed and could lead to a little pressure with ideas that the grains open a little softer then where the overnight left off at.

In the overnight session corn was up 5, beans where up 18 on old crop, new crop beans where up 15, KC wheat was up 8-9 cents, CBOT wheat was firmer by 8, and MPLS wheat was 6 higher.  At 8:50 outsides are mixed; EU wheat is up about 1 %, equities are near unchanged with the DOW up 5 points, crude is off about a dime, gold is off 8.00 an ounce, and the US dollar looks like it is making another move up with the cash index at 80.903.

Yesterday we had a crop progress report; that basically showed the majority of the row crops planted with good emergence and a good wheat crop.  We really lack weather premium right now as headlines lately have been great big crops coming.

Basis remains firm for corn and beans; perhaps firming a little bit.  Yesterday we saw open interest in soybeans go up which indicates good commercial interest and end user pricing; not bad thing to happen.

One thing that has been on the headlines lately is the issues in EU.  If it leads to more macro liquidation then the grains could struggle; if not it feels like basis and demand are strong enough that the grains have a chance to bounce from these areas.

I have heard talk of higher protein getting harvested down south.  I seen a train of 13.76 pro yesterday and heard most of 12.5.  Overall higher protein isn’t exactly the best thing.  It acts as a replacement for spring wheat if it is high enough and then it doesn’t get feed and doesn’t help our export program out.  So I think a higher pro crop down south hurts demand a little bit and I think demand is really what wheat needs if we want to have a bull story at some point down the road.  I would also have to think that a higher pro crop means yields are off a little from what was expected……typically pro and yields go hand in hand in a reverse relationship.

One thing we need to watch going forward is the inverse in the grains.  Most have a big inverse between old crop and new crop so if you are storing grain your cost is very high.  It is a good demand sign when things are worth more today then they are tomorrow so to speak but it is also a huge risk when marketing grain as a general rule you don’t want to sit on product threw an inverse.  Every day that goes by we get closer to new crop and the risk becoming greater as along as the inverse is out there.  Bottom line the markets are close to saying if you want to own the grain own it on paper as it doesn’t make sense to sit through the inverse.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Is it time to panic sell? Are you Comfortable?

With the recent sell off in beans; one has to ask themselves what could we see happen in some of the other grains.  How much downside is left in these commodity and grain markets?

First off there are so many factors that will determine where these markets go from here that one really should NOT try to out guess it.  When marketing grain or doing a grain marketing plan you want to search for Comfort.

One thing you can do is try to evaluate the markets with a plan based on what happens in our markets and on the outlook.  For the outlook I like listing possible outcomes both good and bad; both macro items and specific items.

As example one might list Macro items as

The US Dollar
World Economy direction
China
Europe issues
Politics and Policy
ETC



Crop specific items might include

carryout
supply
demand
weather - drought- relative to supply
price - econ 101........
supply trend, demand trend, and price trend

The reason I like to list some of the above is to help get an idea of some of the possibilities that I feel could happen; especially when looking at extremes

One big extreme could be corn yield this year; if we hit 170 or higher we likely are swimming in corn and have corn starting with a 4.00, more then likely a 3.00 and possibly a 2.00

On the other extreme if we have yields like last year or less; we could easily see new highs for corn.  Perhaps close to the 10.00 or so that corn is presently worth in China

So after i have looked at these possibilities i need to ask my self some hard questions as for outlook and what ifs.  Such as if we see a huge drop have I put my self in a comfortable situation?  Will my crop insurance give me all the coverage i need?  Do i need to have more sold?  Do i want to own put option protection as another form of coverage?

What about to the upside; am i comfortable if we go up from here?  Do i have too much sold?   Do i need to own some cheap out of the money call options?

I could go on and on; asking and answer hundreds if not thousands of questions.   But at the end of the day I want to have one thing
.



Comfort.  I want to be comfortable so that I never have to Panic sell or Fear sell.   I want to be comfortable enough that I don't lose a wink of sleep at night if the markets go up, if the grain markets go down, or if they just don't do much of nothing.

How you get to your Comfort Zone is something that each of you will have to determine.  You might be there and if your not your gut is probably telling you so.  Listen to it.

There is a saying buy fear and sell greed.  Don't be so uncomfortable that you put yourself in that situation.  Put your self in a comfortable situation where you are making sales and using tools that allow you to be comfortable without thinking that you are getting greedy or that you are fear selling.

Be pro-active as it is the first step in getting comfortable.

July 2010 all over again?

Recently the wheat market strength has had me thinking back to July of 2010.  A time when we saw wheat nearly double in a months time.

If memory serves me correct wheat and some of the other grains like corn made their low prices right before the June 30th report.  Then on the heals of a small Russia Crop, everyone bearish (very bearish) prices, and the funds massively short wheat we saw a rally in CBOT from a 4.25 low in late June to a high of 8.41 on August 6th.

The way that rally ended was most impressive and still stands in my memory.  CBOT wheat hit limit up on the 5th of August and then went nearly limit or limit up the next night only to close that session limit down when everything was said and done.

The best part of the wheat rally is what followed as it was really the start of the commodity rally in general.  The small Russia crop for wheat lead to less feed competition and helped out our corn exports and it also helped out our wheat exports.  When went from no profits in grains to good profits in a hurry.  It lead to many selling a little early as we had been down on prices since the 2008 collapse; but it really started and since lead to another leg up for the grain prices and commodity outlook.

Flash back to the here and now; we have some similarities now; funds are shorter today then they where back in 2010 which gives this rally a chance to be more then explosive and it is once again lead by weather and possible smaller crops.



Can this lead to another leg up for the grain prices?  After all since the 2010 rally wheat has been able to hold very close to the 5.50-6.00 level.  Can this wheat rally give us the support that allows 5.00 corn to now be the low for years to come?  Can it lead wheat back to the highs in 2010-2011?  Will we see butterfly effects that include new all time highs for corn and beans?

Maybe this rally in wheat is just to get things back in line; after all without it would we have had any wheat planted this fall?   Now perhaps getting wheat back in line helps keeping things in balance; helps us not see a huge swing in acres next year.

When it comes to marketing i am not going to get super bullish and not make sales.  But I am also going to remember 2010 and try to spread my risk out; scaling into sales slowly in hopes of a big bull market and I am going to remember prices just a few weeks ago for wheat.  With that in mind maybe I will look at buying some put protection and trying to create min price levels for my grain.

And that protection; i might want to get sooner then later as I don't know if this will be July 2010 all over again or just another correction in a bear market.