Opening Grain Market Comments 6-11-2013

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session.

In the overnight session old crop corn was up 2 cents, new crop corn was up 1 a penny, KC wheat was off ½ of a cent, MPLS wheat was 2 better, July beans ended up 9 cents, November soybeans up a penny a bushel, and CBOT wheat.  Outside markets at 8:15 have a DOW futures pointing towards a lower 120 point opening, gold is off 17 bucks an ounce, crude is off 1.60 a barrel, and the US dollar is off about 100 points with the cash US dollar index at 81.529.

One small positive is that by the time the overnight session had ended all of the grains had bounce back towards unchanged; 3-5 cents off of the lows for most of the contracts.

Yesterday afternoon we had a crop condition report and progress update.  Not much for surprises; below is CHS Hedging recap.

http://chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2013/Research/USDA%20Crop%20Progress/Crop%20Progress061013.pdf

Headlines include corn conditions unchanged at 63% good/excellent.  Corn planting at 95%; which opens the door to more of the market asking the question if rain makes grain?  

Soybean planting at 71% which was on the low end of estimates.  Spring wheat planting at 87% with conditions slipping 2% in the G/E slots.

The focus now seems to be on weather and the USDA Supply and Demand report which is out at 11:00 central time on Wednesday.  For weather we do see some areas with some heat in the forecast.  But overall weather still looks to be a wild card to me.

As for the USDA report; probably a wait and see market right now. 

Here is latest estimates; via the Van Trump Report.

US Ending Stocks 2012/13
	June #	May USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	0.759	0.759	0.684 - 0.919
Soybeans	???	0.125	0.121	0.080 - 0.140
Wheat	???	0.731	0.733	0.715 - 0.751
US Ending Stocks 2013/14
	June #	May USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	2.004	1.795	1.175 - 2.200
Soybeans	???	0.265	0.268	0.185 - 0.344
Wheat	???	0.670	0.640	0.501 - 0.713
Global Ending Stocks 2012/13
	June #	May USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	125.430	125.975	124.500 - 128.200
Soybeans	???	62.460	62.105	60.500 - 63.000
Wheat	???	180.170	180.395	179.800 - 181.395

Global Ending Stocks 2013/14
	June #	May USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
Corn	???	154.630	149.571	141.510 - 155.200
Soybeans	???	74.960	73.512	68.200 - 76.000
Wheat	???	186.380	185.144	179.800 - 188.500
US Wheat Production
	June #	May USDA #	Avg Guess	Range of Guesses
All Wheat	???	2.057	2.034	1.872 - 2.109
All Winter	???	1.486	1.467	1.401 - 1.523
Hard Red Winter	???	0.768	0.752	0.676 - 0.815
Soft Red Winter	???	0.501	0.505	0.492 - 0.517
White Winter	???	0.217	0.210	0.200 - 0.217

Not a ton of other news out this a.m.  I did see one comment about India wheat being dropped to 87 MMT from the current 94.88 MMT.  One positive when we look at the world wheat picture.  But the world wheat situation doesn’t seem to be a super bull market.  Most of the comments seem to be that we have had good weather in plenty of wheat growing areas in the world.  Ideas are not that the US will be ran over with export business.  That demand component is really missing from this market.

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Thanks