Wednesday, October 9, 2013

closing comments 5-8-2014

Grain markets closed mixed today in a choppy trading session ahead of the USDA report that is out on Friday.

When everything was said and done we had corn up 2, KC wheat up 1, MPLS wheat down 1, CBOT wheat down 3, old crop soybeans up 23, and new crop beans up 7. 

A couple things I see in the market place; first off it feels like the funds still want to own grains; next is we have a lot of fear in the market place due to weather and crop size, and lastly we have the market awaiting the report that is out on Friday. 


As for the report here are the estimates;

This comes from the Van Trump Report

May USDA Report is out tomorrow at 11:00am CST. Below are the estimates:
US 2013/14 Ending Stocks

USDA 5/9
USDA Apr.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA 2013
Corn
???
1.331
1.314
1.231 - 1.435
0.821
Soybeans
???
0.135
0.134
0.125 - 0.17
5
0.141
Wheat
???
0.583
0.5
90
0.570 - 0.63
0
0.718
US 2014/15 Ending Stocks

USDA 5/9
USDA Feb
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
2.1
1.672
1.295 - 2.
3
54
Soybeans
???
.285
0.307
0.200 - 0.464
Wheat
???
.587
0.553
0.425 - 0.652
US Wheat Production

USDA 5/9
USDA June
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA 2013
All Winter
???
1.509
1.468
1.312 - 1.591
1.534
Hard Red Winter
???
0.781
0.782
0.610 - 0.870
0.744
Soft Red Winter
???
0.509
0.467
0.
409
 - 0.
570
0.
56
5
White Winter
???
0.219
0.2
20
0.188 - 0.268
0.225
All Wheat
???
2.080
2.0
50
1.891 - 2.182
2.130
World 2013/14 Ending Stocks

USDA 5/9
USDA Apr.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
158.00
157.31
149.45 - 161.20
Soybeans
???
69.42
69.77
67.30 - 73.00
Wheat
???
186.68
185.95
181.91 - 189.00
World 2014/15 Ending Stocks

USDA 5/9
USDA Apr.
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
???
NA
159.41
149.90 - 175.00
Soybeans
???
NA
80.34
67.00 - 95.00
Wheat
???
NA
184.53
178.00 - 200.00
South American Production 2014

USDA 5/9
USDA April
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Argentina
Corn
???
24.00
23.86
22.30 - 23.86
Argentina Soybeans
???
54.00
54.40
53.50- 57.00
Brazil
Corn

???
72.00
72.10
70.50 - 74.00
Brazil Soybeans
???
87.50
87.23
86.50 - 87.50


I don’t think anyone is really smart enough to outguess the USDA; many can have good theories and explanations as to what could and maybe should happen; but I have always found that you simply can’t outguess the USDA and there logic.  You can be right some of the time; maybe even most of the time; but not all of the time.  So what I look for into a USDA report is what are the possible risks and rewards.  Is the market leaning too far bearish or bullish.  What is the market expecting?  What has the price done leading up to the USDA report?

The thing that sticks out to me as a possible risk on this report has to be the world wheat carryout numbers and wheat production.  Mainly because of the rally we have had; I think a big 2014/15 world wheat number towards the top end of the guess could lead to a massive sell off.  In regards to wheat production it has seemed to me that many times the USDA has always been slow at lowering production numbers. 


Here is link to Tregg Cronin’s Morning Comments for Halo Commodities………at the bottom he shares some good thoughts for the USDA report that is out on Friday.  http://halocommodities.com/582014-morning-comments/




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