Or maybe not...........
I read in one of the agweb.com marketing discussion groups; which I am a regular poster in a couple possiblities of how bullish new crop corn fundamentals and balance sheets could get. Perhaps they will; but don't forget seasonal history, the fact that even if things are bullish they could already be built into the price and the simple fact that things don't have to shake out as bullish as everyone things.
Here was my post in the marketing discussion group.
........."good point on the possible bullish numbers out there............but i think everyone knows how bullish things could get........but what happens to the S & D if you slash demand by 5-10% because of the high prices......... one thing that i thought last year when the russia news and exports got banned was it was more bullish corn because it took away feed supply on the market
i think the russia news now is the same.......more bearish cbot corn then anything.........so there is one reason to cut demand......what about the simply high prices.........july corn and july wheat trading par??? i think there might be some switching of demand???? and the simple fact that replacement corn doesn't work for many in the industry..........so via the above i think it is possible.....maybe not probable........but possible demand gets cut.........
what if on the supply side we end up 5% above trend line for yields????........10%..........as it really is too early to say that we won't.........after all look at the record 2009 crop in comparison to the present crop.........rather simliar............so far........what if it even comes in at trendline yield?
and then on the acres..........what happens if we don't cut acres.......but increase like we have for many years versus the march report..........
maybe none of the above happen.....and maybe corn goes straight to 10.00 or higher.........but if you plug in some of the above possilbities and add the nervous factor that the outside markets have............can you paint a picture where some of the above un likely possiblities play out..............anyone want to do the math on carryout based on some of those happening??
don't forget risk managment along with the fact that tops are always put in when the most are bullish"............
I read in one of the agweb.com marketing discussion groups; which I am a regular poster in a couple possiblities of how bullish new crop corn fundamentals and balance sheets could get. Perhaps they will; but don't forget seasonal history, the fact that even if things are bullish they could already be built into the price and the simple fact that things don't have to shake out as bullish as everyone things.
Here was my post in the marketing discussion group.
........."good point on the possible bullish numbers out there............but i think everyone knows how bullish things could get........but what happens to the S & D if you slash demand by 5-10% because of the high prices......... one thing that i thought last year when the russia news and exports got banned was it was more bullish corn because it took away feed supply on the market
i think the russia news now is the same.......more bearish cbot corn then anything.........so there is one reason to cut demand......what about the simply high prices.........july corn and july wheat trading par??? i think there might be some switching of demand???? and the simple fact that replacement corn doesn't work for many in the industry..........so via the above i think it is possible.....maybe not probable........but possible demand gets cut.........
what if on the supply side we end up 5% above trend line for yields????........10%..........as it really is too early to say that we won't.........after all look at the record 2009 crop in comparison to the present crop.........rather simliar............so far........what if it even comes in at trendline yield?
and then on the acres..........what happens if we don't cut acres.......but increase like we have for many years versus the march report..........
maybe none of the above happen.....and maybe corn goes straight to 10.00 or higher.........but if you plug in some of the above possilbities and add the nervous factor that the outside markets have............can you paint a picture where some of the above un likely possiblities play out..............anyone want to do the math on carryout based on some of those happening??
don't forget risk managment along with the fact that tops are always put in when the most are bullish"............
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